For CLEM OLUWOLE, Nigeria’s inability to determine its true population is more than a statistical deficiency—it is a national development crisis. In this insightful analysis, he examines the country’s controversial census history, the implications of rapid population growth and why political will, improved security and responsible population management are essential if Nigeria is to harness its demographic potential rather than be overwhelmed by it
Today, I am stepping away from the topic that has dominated this space for quite some time—insecurity.
You will agree with me that repetitive commentaries can eventually induce ennui, no matter how relevant or well-packaged they are. As the typical Nigerian would say, variety is the spice of life. Imagine eating egusi or ewedu soup every day.
However hungry you may be, your appetite will eventually disappear.
My discourse today is on population headcount, an issue that rarely receives the attention it deserves from successive governments, unlike politics. Virtually every aspect of a nation’s socio-economic development revolves around its population.
That is why the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) recommends that countries conduct a comprehensive population and housing census at least once every 10 years. To underscore the importance of this critical driver of national development, the UNFPA marks July 11 every year as World Population Day.
Nigeria joins the rest of the world in observing the day as a matter of routine. Speeches are delivered and activities organised, after which attention quickly shifts elsewhere until the next commemoration.
The importance of census-taking is reflected in countries such as the United States, where the Constitution mandates a national census every 10 years under Article I, Section 2. Nations including New Zealand, Australia and Canada even conduct mid-decade censuses every five years to monitor rapid demographic changes more accurately.
Unfortunately, this is not the reality in Nigeria and many developing countries, where population figures are often viewed through political and economic lenses.
In many developed countries, the traditional census is increasingly complemented—or even replaced—by continuous automated data obtained from birth and death registries, tax records and other administrative databases.
Nigeria is no stranger to population counts. Long before independence in 1960, the country conducted several demographic exercises. The last generally accepted census was held in 2006, recording a population of about 140 million.
Historically, however, census exercises in Nigeria have been plagued by controversy, manipulation and allegations of irregularities. Today, Nigeria’s population is widely estimated at about 240 million, suggesting an increase of roughly 100 million within less than two decades.
Between 1952 and 1953, Nigeria’s population stood at just 31.6 million. By the 1962/63 census, conducted shortly after independence, it had risen to 55.6 million.
Another census was held in 1973, but its results were never officially accepted because of widespread allegations of falsification. The 1991 census, which recorded 88.5 million people, was regarded as one of the most scientifically credible exercises undertaken in the country.
Presently, national planning depends largely on projections by the National Population Commission (NPC) and international organisations, which estimate Nigeria’s population at well over 240 million.
A growing population without matching development
There is no doubt that Nigeria’s population continues to grow rapidly, while the country’s poverty rate hovers around 41 per cent. Projections indicate that the population could exceed 262 million by 2030.
Yet, development has failed to keep pace with this demographic expansion. By 2050, Nigeria is expected to become the world’s third most populous country, with a predominantly youthful population.
Former Minister of Health, Dr Osagie Ehanire, aptly captured the gravity of the situation when he observed that Nigeria’s rising population was adversely affecting social development and the quality of life of the average citizen.
Ehanire made the observation during the launch of the 2022 State of the World Population Report organised by the UNFPA under the theme, ‘Seeing the Unseen: The Case for Action in the Crisis of Unintended Pregnancy’.
He disclosed that Nigeria’s population, projected at about 214 million at the time, was driven by a high annual growth rate of 3.2 per cent and a fertility rate of 5.3 children per woman, compounded by inadequate family planning.
According to him, “Given the poor family planning indices, it is not surprising that the prevalence of unwanted pregnancies is very high.”
He further noted that findings from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) showed that three per cent of pregnancies were unwanted, while eight per cent were mistimed. These, he explained, resulted largely from the non-use, inconsistent use or incorrect use of effective family planning methods.
Similarly, former Chairman of the National Population Commission, Nasir Isa Kwarra, revealed that about 2.1 million pregnancies in Nigeria were unintended. He observed that many women and girls lacked the freedom and opportunities to make informed decisions about their reproductive health.
United Nations estimates indicate that the global population reached eight billion in 2024 and continues to grow at approximately 1.14 per cent annually, adding about 80 million people every year. Nigeria remains one of the fastest-growing contributors to that global increase.
UN projections further suggest that the world’s population will stabilise at slightly above 10 billion after 2062. By 2030, India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous nation.
Nigeria is projected to surpass the United States in population by 2045, becoming the third most populous country globally, with the possibility of approaching one billion people by the end of the century.
Why Nigeria needs an accurate census
There is little doubt that Nigeria’s current population figures are largely estimates. In truth, no one can state with certainty the country’s actual population. The figures widely quoted are based on projections derived from previous census data using annual growth rates.
Politics has also complicated the issue, with different regions frequently accusing one another of inflating population figures for economic and political advantage. While some in the South allege that livestock are counted as part of the North’s population, some in the North counter by claiming that marine creatures swell the South’s figures.
It is unfortunate that Nigeria, despite its abundant resources, has been unable to conduct a credible census in the 21st century. Although one was planned for 2023 towards the end of the Buhari administration, it was shelved after concerns over the enormous financial implications.
Responsibility was effectively transferred to the succeeding administration, yet little appears to have been done since then. This represents a serious national setback because a country without reliable demographic data cannot plan effectively for its people.
A large population, by itself, is not necessarily an advantage. Unless government can provide food, healthcare, education, employment, housing and security, population growth simply compounds existing challenges rather than creating opportunities.
Among the consequences of unchecked population growth and poor population management are hunger, poverty, ignorance and disease.
Many Nigerians continue to view childbearing primarily through religious and cultural perspectives, believing that children are divine gifts and that God will invariably provide for them.
Unfortunately, this belief has often resulted in children growing up in deprivation and neglect, with some eventually becoming criminals or social misfits. The era when large families provided abundant labour for farming has largely passed.
One may recall the attempt by former military President, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, to introduce a policy limiting families to four children. The initiative ultimately failed, largely because it lacked legal backing and public acceptance.
Governments at all levels must intensify public enlightenment on the socio-economic consequences of unplanned childbearing. Many families, particularly those in the lower socio-economic strata, already struggle to afford basic necessities, including food, education and healthcare, amid worsening economic conditions.
Family planning services should therefore be made widely available and affordable in healthcare facilities, especially in rural communities. Population should not merely be measured by size but by quality. A poorly educated, unhealthy and impoverished population ceases to be an asset and instead becomes a burden.
The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu should make the conduct of a credible national census a priority if it secures another mandate in 2027.
My greatest concern, however, remains the country’s widespread insecurity. A nationwide exercise as extensive as a population census cannot be conducted successfully while criminal elements continue to threaten lives across many parts of the country.
Restoring security must, therefore, precede any meaningful effort to determine how many Nigerians there truly are.
Oluwole writes from Abuja via clemoluwole@gmail.com